Dow 2017 vs. 1999

The Dow chart just looked familiar this morning.  I had seen this before.  Sure enough, it turns out there are some similarities to another Dow milestone, Dow 10,000 in 1999.  Chart below, 1998-1999 on top and 2016-2017 on bottom.

Now I'll be honest.  I'm not a huge fan of analogs for predictive value, but I do value them when they illustrate a behavioral phenomenon.  In this case, a major index at a big round number.

2017 and 1998 are very different market regimes.  However, you may notice a similar sideways market then a quick run up to the milestone level.  Most strikingly, notice how the market hovers around the level, unable to break higher.

Many investors waiting for someone else to provide the big push above the big hurdle.  Then market history suggests buyers plunge in due to FOMO.

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